MTR

SUBJECTS: Confidence in the Government; votes on the carbon tax and Malaysia Solution; possibility of an election

E&OE… 

Steve Price: Christopher Pyne, good morning to you again. 

Christopher Pyne: Good morning Steve. 

Andrew Bolt: Christopher, this is a fascinating week in Parliament.  There are two votes coming up.  One is the carbon dioxide tax, which I think is the most important and unfortunately I think that’s going to get waved through I think, the Lower House.  The other one is fascinating, not because it’s going to change anything at all, but because Julia Gillard has put on the line her reputation.  She’s putting to the house her bill about boat people, whether the Federal Government can make any deal with any country, specifically in this case Malaysia and if she fails it’ll be the first time that any bill has gone down in the last 80 years put forward by a government.  What’s your reading of the numbers here? 

Pyne: Well, as you say Andrew it would be the first significant bill in which the Government has staked it’s credibility to be defeated on the floor of the House of Representatives since 1929.  And any Government with any integrity if it lost that vote would go to the people and it’s interesting that Julia Gillard is making such a stand over sending asylum seekers to Malaysia with an 800 person cap, which we know will be a dead letter, once that cap is reached. 

Bolt: But the most important thing here I think is this; she’s put this bill to Parliament hoping to win in the Lower House, but it’s going to be beaten the Senate anyway.  It’s not going to go through the Senate.  The Greens and you will kill it.  It’s gone.  Why she has put this through the Lower House is simply staggering half her own party.  If she loses, like you say, it’s very significant.  It all depends on the West Australian National Tony Crook.  You got him in your pocket or not? 

Pyne: He says he hasn’t made up his mind, but I would point out to you that we had this bill lifted on the last sitting Thursday and the Government pulled it because they didn’t have the numbers.  Now, Anthony Albanese went around the Press Gallery boasting he had the numbers and so on.  But the obvious question is if he had the numbers then why did you pull the bill?  So I think their bravado and overconfidence is not matched with the reality on the ground. 

Price: But have you talked to Crook? 

Pyne: I know who’s talking to Tony Crook and they are spending a lot of time with him and my view is the indications he has given is that the Government would be ill advised to rely on his vote.  He’s even said in the papers this morning that a year ago he sided with Warren Truss and Tony Abbott to form a government.  So why the Government could feel they could browbeat him into supporting them now is really beyond me.  My view is the Government doesn’t have the numbers to pass the bill and that it will be defeated this week and that is a confidence issue and the Government should go to the people and give them a say. 

Bolt: But there is a step in the middle though, isn’t there, Christopher?  Say they lose that bill, we don’t know, it depends on Tony Crook.  I mean, it’s incredible because it will be beaten in the Senate anyway a (inaudible) kind of attempt.  Say they lose.  You say they should go to the people, but they actually need to pass a no confidence motion in the middle of that.  You wouldn’t win that on though would you? 

Pyne: Well, you don’t actually have to technically pass a no confidence motion.  Any Government can decide a matter or a bill is of such importance that it represents confidence.  In fact when the Government fell in 1941, it was simply a vote over whether the budget should increase by one dollar.  So it doesn’t have to be a matter of great importance, it can just be a vote that the Government decides should be a confidence matter.  Now Julia Gillard’s rhetoric is so overblown – of course the Labor Party are big into that – I think she has created the impression, certainly to a lot of people in the Parliament and the Press Gallery that this is such an important bill that if it fails her Government will have to seriously consider whether it goes to the people.  There is a clamour around the country, not just on border protection, but on the carbon tax obviously since the Government promised not to introduce it before the election. 

Price: There’s a whole lot of people who aren’t going to want that to happen though, all the independents and her included.  It’s just not going to happen though is it? 

Pyne: Yeah, but Steve you get to the point where you reach the law of diminishing returns.  The more this Government thumbs it’s nose at the people over things like the carbon tax and border protection and the mining tax and so on who has the votes on the floor of the Parliament rather than what is good for the country, I think the more the day of reckoning will be worse for them when they actually hold the election.  There’s a lot of Labor people who think it’s time to pull the pin on this circus, have a vote.  If they lose the election then they will start rebuilding. 

Bolt: But let’s explain why Julia Gillard is taking this extraordinary highwire act to Parliament this week.  Her aim was to embarrass you guys because you’ve always said you want offshore processing and she’s put a bill to Parliament which would allow offshore processing, whether it’s your solution in Nauru or hers in Malaysia and she says she wants to embarrass you guys by making every one of you put your hand up to say “we’re against this”.  But doesn’t that mean all her party have to put up their hands and say “we want offshore processing” including the left that doesn’t? 

Pyne:  Well, what it in effect means is that the Labor party has to say we’re going to ignore the ALP platform and we’re going to support offshore processing in Malaysia without any protections in a country that hasn’t signed the UN Convention on refugees.  It’s kind of a parallel universe up here.  I’m sure you both agree.  But the idea that she can keep saying it’s Tony Abbott’s fault if boats arrive, I think the public say to themselves, “but didn’t Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd dismantle the Howard Government’s policy for border protection and that’s why they’re all here?”  And the answer is yes.  The Government just can’t keep saying black is white. 

Price: The other part of the parallel universe is that every poll in the country says we don’t want a carbon tax and we’re going to get one of those as well. 

Pyne: The people say they don’t want a carbon tax, they don’t want a mining tax and they particularly hate the Malaysian Solution and the Government says we have to have all three of them. 

Price: Crazy stuff.  It’s going to be an interesting week.  Christopher thanks for your time. 

Pyne: Thank you. 

ENDS